The 4% Rule: Is It Still Safe?
The cornerstone of the FIRE movement is the 4% Rule, derived from the Trinity Study. It states that you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement, and adjust that amount for inflation every subsequent year, with a 95% chance of not running out of money for 30 years.
LeanFIRE vs. FatFIRE
Not all retirements look the same.
Minimalist living. Requires ~$1M portfolio. Focuses on extreme frugality to retire ASAP (often in 30s).
Upper-middle class lifestyle. Requires ~$2.5M+ portfolio. Allows for travel, dining out, and luxuries.
Sequence of Returns Risk
The biggest danger to early retirees is a market crash right after they quit their job. If the market drops 20% in Year 1, selling 4% of your portfolio actually depletes a much larger chunk of your shares, making it hard to recover. This is why many aim for a safer 3.5% withdrawal rate or keep a 2-year cash cushion.
Disclaimer: The Trinity Study assumes a mix of stocks and bonds. Past market performance guarantees nothing.